The spread between what Florida apartments trade at and what a Treasury pays is the price of owning them. This tracker shows where that price stands, month by month, against sixteen years of closed sales.
Updated quarterly · SP Multifamily Group of Marcus & Millichap
FLORIDA CAP RATE, SEPT. 2026
US 10-YEAR TREASURY, SEPT. 2026
SPREAD OVER THE 10-YEAR
AVERAGE SPREAD SINCE 2010
FLORIDA MULTIFAMILY SALES TRACKED SINCE 2010
(5,535 WITH A REPORTED CAP RATE)
Cap rates and the US 10-Year Treasury do not move in lockstep. The Treasury reprices every trading day on inflation, growth, and the Federal Reserve. Apartment cap rates reprice only when sales close, and sellers, buyers, and lenders take months to agree on the new number. The spread between the two is what an investor requires, over a risk-free yield, to own and operate a Florida apartment building. When the spread is wide, apartments are cheap relative to bonds; when it is thin, a move in the Treasury has nowhere to go but into the cap rate.
Each month the tracker averages the reported cap rates on every Florida apartment sale of 10 or more units that closed in that month, statewide and by location type and property size. Since January 2010, that is 9,580 sales and 5,535 reported cap rates. Every sale counts once, whatever its age, class, or amenity package: a 1970s garden property and a newly built, fully amenitized community that closed in the same month sit in the same average. The series describe the Florida market as a whole, not any one segment of it, and a specific property will trade above or below them. Months with few reported cap rates move more, which is why the chart shows every month rather than a smoothed line.
The monthly cap rate less the monthly average of the 10-Year constant-maturity Treasury yield. Since 2010, the Florida statewide spread has averaged 3.77%. In September 2026, it was 1.55%, and it has been below its average in every month since September 2021.
Headline example: In September 2022, the statewide cap rate reached its cycle low of 4.19%, with the 10-Year at 3.52%. Four years later, the cap rate is 6.54%, and the 10-Year is 4.99%, the highest monthly average in the series. Cap rates have moved 235 basis points; the Treasury has moved 147. The spread absorbed the difference and remains 222 basis points narrower than its historical average.
Choose a series to see its cap rate, the 10-Year and the spread between them for every month since January 2010, with the long-run average spread marked. Statewide is every sale; Urban and Suburban follow CoStar's location type; the two size series split the statewide sales at 100 units. Hover or tap for any month's figures.
The statewide cap rate bottomed at 4.19% in September 2022 and stood at 6.54% in September 2026, a 56% increase. Holding income constant, a property producing $500,000 of net operating income was worth $11.93 million at the low and $7.65 million at today's cap rate, a decline of $4.29 million, or 35.9%. Urban product moved more (3.87% to 6.58%), and Suburban product moved from 4.00% in February 2022 to 6.50%.
The 10-Year's monthly average rose from 4.47% in June to 4.99% in September, 52 basis points in a quarter, and the Federal Reserve raised its target on September 17, taking the effective federal funds rate from 3.63% to 3.88%. The statewide cap rate averaged 6.28% across the quarter's 172 reported cap rates and 6.54% in September, so the spread narrowed from 1.65% in June to 1.55%. Closed sales had not yet absorbed the move in rates.
Properties of 100 or more units traded at a 5.80% cap rate in September 2026, 0.81% over the 10-Year against a 3.11% average since 2010; the series briefly went negative in September 2022. Properties of 10 to 99 units traded at 6.94%, a 1.95% spread against a 4.15% average. The gap between the two, the size premium, ran 100 to 170 basis points a year from 2011 to 2022, collapsed to 6 basis points in 2023 as large assets repriced first, and has rebuilt only to 34 basis points in 2026. Size is the only quality proxy in the data: the series do not separate year built or asset class, so a new Class A community and a 1980s property of the same unit count sit in the same 100+ average.
The statewide spread averaged 3.77% from 2010 through September 2026. It was 1.55% in September 2026, and it has sat below its average for 61 consecutive months. It was last above 3% in January 2022. The compression began when the 10-Year rose faster than sales could reprice in 2022, and it has not unwound: cap rates have risen, but the Treasury has kept pace.
At September's 10-Year of 4.99% plus the 3.77% average spread, the implied statewide cap rate is 8.76%. On the same $500,000 of income, that is $5.71 million of value, another $1.94 million, or 25.3%, below today's. This is arithmetic, not a forecast; it shows how a wider spread compounds any further move in the Treasury, and how a lower Treasury does not restore value if investors require more spread. The calculator below runs the same arithmetic on any income, yield and spread.
Urban sales (Urban and CBD) averaged 6.58% in September 2026 and Suburban sales (Suburban and Multiple) 6.50%, with spreads of 1.59% and 1.51%. Suburban carries the widest long-run average spread in the location series, 3.88%; Urban carries the lowest cycle-low cap rate, 3.87%. Both sit 206 to 237 basis points below their averages.
| Cap rate, Sep 2026 | 6.54% |
| Spread over the 10-Year | 1.55% |
| Average spread since 2010 | 3.77% |
| Current versus average | -222 bp |
| Cycle-low cap rate | 4.19% · Sep 2022 |
| Change since the low | +235 bp |
Every Florida apartment sale of 10 or more units with a reported cap rate, all location types. The series the page leads with; 5,535 reported cap rates across 9,580 sales since January 2010.
| Cap rate, Sep 2026 | 6.58% |
| Spread over the 10-Year | 1.59% |
| Average spread since 2010 | 3.65% |
| Current versus average | -206 bp |
| Cycle-low cap rate | 3.87% · Sep 2022 |
| Change since the low | +271 bp |
Sales CoStar classes as Urban or CBD. Thinner monthly samples than Suburban, so single months move more; the cycle low of 3.87% is the lowest of the location cuts.
| Cap rate, Sep 2026 | 6.50% |
| Spread over the 10-Year | 1.51% |
| Average spread since 2010 | 3.88% |
| Current versus average | -237 bp |
| Cycle-low cap rate | 4.00% · Feb 2022 |
| Change since the low | +250 bp |
Sales classed as Suburban or Multiple, the larger of the two location cuts. Its average spread, 3.88%, is the widest of the three.
| Cap rate, Sep 2026 | 6.94% |
| Spread over the 10-Year | 1.95% |
| Average spread since 2010 | 4.15% |
| Current versus average | -220 bp |
| Cycle-low cap rate | 4.05% · Feb 2023 |
| Change since the low | +289 bp |
Properties of 10 to 99 units, the private-capital end of the market. Cap rates run above the institutional band in almost every month, and the current spread of 1.95% is the widest of the five series.
| Cap rate, Sep 2026 | 5.80% |
| Spread over the 10-Year | 0.81% |
| Average spread since 2010 | 3.11% |
| Current versus average | -230 bp |
| Cycle-low cap rate | 3.48% · Sep 2022 |
| Change since the low | +232 bp |
Properties of 100 or more units. The most compressed segment: 0.81% over the 10-Year against a 3.11% average, and the only series whose spread went negative, briefly, in September 2022. Unit count is the only quality proxy here; the average pools every age and class of property above 100 units.
Enter a property's net operating income, set a 10-Year yield and a spread, and the calculator shows the implied cap rate and value at the cycle low, today and under the scenario. It holds income constant and is not an opinion of value for any property.
Sales come from CoStar's statewide Florida apartment export, CoStar's statewide student-housing search, and Marcus & Millichap / IPA internal closing records. Every sale of 10 or more units is included; sales without a reported cap rate count toward transaction and unit totals but not toward the cap-rate average. Where an internal record and a public record disagree on a closed cap rate, the internal record is used. Portfolio sales are counted one row per property, as allocated. Each monthly figure is the simple average of the reported cap rates on sales that closed in the month, statewide and for each subset. The cap rate is not weighted by size, because the size series exist to show that difference directly. The averages are not broken out by year built, asset class, or amenity level; location type and property size are the only subsets published. An institutional, fully amenitized asset will usually trade at a cap rate below the statewide average for its month, and an older and smaller property will often trade above it; read the averages and spreads with that in mind.
The 10-Year is the monthly mean of the daily 10-Year constant-maturity Treasury yield; the spread is the cap rate less that mean in the same month. The dataset is rebuilt from source each quarter, and the history reflects the current vintage of every source, so figures may be revised when sources revise.
CoStar — Florida apartment sales, 10+ units, with location type and reported cap rate — January 2010 to September 2026
CoStar — Florida student-housing sales, 10+ units — January 2010 to September 2026
Marcus & Millichap / IPA internal records — Florida apartment closings and verified cap rates — 2010 to 2026
U.S. Department of the Treasury — daily par yield curve, 10-year — monthly means, January 2010 to September 2026
Federal Reserve (FRED) — effective federal funds rate — monthly
Next refresh: data through December 2026
The tracker says what the market pays for Florida apartment income today. What it says about a specific property depends on its age, class, income, market and buyer pool, none of which the averages separate. Request a broker opinion of value and we will run the numbers on your asset.
Senior Director Investments
(407)557-3889
benjamin.skinner@marcusmillichap.com
Senior Director Investments
(407)557-3888
matthew.prozzillo@marcusmillichap.com
Figures describe closed Florida apartment sales of 10 or more units at the stated vintages and are averages of reported cap rates; a single month can reflect a small number of sales. Scenario figures are arithmetic on stated inputs and are not forecasts, nor an opinion of value for any property. CoStar data is used under license.
To cite this page: SP Multifamily Group of Marcus & Millichap, Florida Multifamily Cap Rate Spread Tracker, data through September 2026.
Media inquiries: benjamin.skinner@marcusmillichap.com & matthew.prozzillo@marcusmillichap.com
